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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.